A massive day of racing at headquarters, with the Group 1 2020 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) the headline event, as well as the 2020 Exford Plate (1400m), 2020 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m), the 2020 Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m), and the 2020 Danehill Stakes (1200m) the other major events on the card.
The rail is in the true with a predicted Good 4 surface, though there are expected showers in the afternoon on Saturday, which could see the track be downgraded to a Soft 5 or Soft 6, so keep an eye out on the day and adjust.
Flemington usually plays fairly with the rail in the true, so runners should have a chance from anywhere in the field.
Let’s take a look at some of the better betting opportunities throughout the day.
Race 2 – Exford Plate – 1400m
I want to be with Immortal Love here, after a super impressive win in the Group 3 McNeil Stakes last start. He sat back and hit the line strongly, though does have the tactical speed to be ridden more positively, which is a big plus. Looks one of the main contenders for the 2020 Caulfield Guineas, and I’m keen to back him here.
Has already moved in from $4.60 to $3.80, and may start shorter on the day.
I want to watch Cherry Tortoni first up, who won at this track over the mile during the winter in the listed Taj Rossi Final, but think he may be looking for further than the 1400m here.
Verdict: I’m backing Immortal Love at $3.80.
|1||Immortal Love (6)J: Craig Newitt 58.5kg T: M Price & M Kent Jnr||$3.70||$1.55||Bet Now|
Watch: Immortal Love fly home to take out the McNeil Stakes last start.
What a finish! 3 across the line as Immortal Love wins out in the G3 HDF McNeil S. at Caulfield. Bred & raced by @UnitedSynd, Immortal Love has won 3 from 3 and is from Moonee Valley stakes winner Loveyamadly, a ½ sister to 3 SWs in Lite’n In My Veins, Hi Word & Ducimus. pic.twitter.com/uV38z2NRTA
— Aushorse (@Aushorse_TBA) August 29, 2020
Race 3 – Let’s Elope Stakes – 1400m
Arcadia Queen is the class runner here and at her best she should make a mess of this field. She’s had injury worries since her taxing run in the Golden Eagle, but I’m backing her in at the price against Savatiano. Footage of her working last week looked positive, and I’m banking on a return to form here.
Verdict: I’m backing Arcadia Queen at $3.30.
|1||Arcadia Queen (12)J: William Pike 58kg T: G & A Williams||$3.20||$1.40||Bet Now|
Watch: Arcadia Queen blow out the cobwebs last week in a jump out.
Here’s the video of Arcadia Queen in this morning’s jump out at Bendigo. Looks like all systems go for the Makybe Diva. @MickLynch_Age @m_felgate @TheSharkTweet @WarrenHuntly @AndrewNJHawkins @Jay_Rooney @rtralphy @theagesport pic.twitter.com/eUj9R66T8h
— Damien Ractliffe (@DamienRactliffe) September 4, 2020
Race 4 – Bobbie Lewis Quality – 1200m
This is a tough one with a number of talented sprinters, including Tofane, Zoutori, The Inevitable, Dollar For Dollar, and Bold Star.
The value in the market here is with Tony McEvoy’s Dollar For Dollar for mine, with $15/$4 very good each way odds for a sprinter of his quality.
Verdict: Dollar For Dollar each way at $15/$4.
|5||Dollar For Dollar (5)J: Luke Currie 55kg T: T & C Mcevoy||$14.00||$3.60||Bet Now|
Race 6 – The Sofitel – 1400m
Windstorm is a very impressive galloper from the Bob Peters yard and I don’t want to be against him on Saturday, though the price is very skinny and not something I’m keen to dive into.
I’ve looked for some value in the market and found it with Bumper Blast, who looks a good enough price for an each way play if you can forgive its last start where it was flat second up.
Verdict: Wouldn’t talk you out of backing Windstorm at $2.15, but I’ll be taking Bumper Blast each way at $9.50/$2.60.
|11||Bumper Blast (10)J: Craig Williams 56kg T: Robert Hickmott||$9.00||$2.70||Bet Now|
Watch: Bumper Blast get the job done in its last start at Flemington.
Third Flemington win for Ocean Park 4yo Bumper Blast. @FlemingtonVRC @CWilliamsJockey @HickmottRobert @KarakaChat @NZTM_TWEET @CambridgeStud @cambriaparkTB @hallmarkstud @WaikatoStud pic.twitter.com/aL6OzNakDB
— Pedigree Update (@pedigreeupdate) July 18, 2020
Race 7 – Makybe Diva Stakes – 1600m
Click here for a full runner-by-runner analysis and tips for the Group 1 feature event.
*Odds correct as of 1.15pm Friday.
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